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Most electric power utilities utilize probability methods in the planning and operation of generating capacity. Deterministic criteria, however, are usually used in the planning and operation of composite generation and transmission or bulk electric power systems. The most commonly applied deterministic criteria dictate that specific credible outages should not result in system failure. The traditional...
The problem of choosing the optimal location and size for shunt capacitors in unbalanced distribution systems can be formulated as a mixed, non-linear, constrained optimization problem and is usually solved in deterministic scenarios. However, distribution systems are stochastic in nature, leading thus to inaccurate deterministic solutions. To take into account the unavoidable uncertainties which...
It is recognized today that short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with a paramount information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. When considering different areas covering a region, they are produced independently, and thus neglect the interdependence structure of prediction errors, induced by movement of meteorological fronts,...
Up to now, to analyze and design the operational limits of transmission lines, many utilities still apply traditional deterministic approaches, which have long been recognized as excessively conservative. In this work, we propose a different overload protection scheme in order to increase the line ampacity. The main idea is to include the thermal model of overhead lines inside the protection and then...
There is growing interest in designing and applying deterministic techniques that include probabilistic considerations in order to assess increased system stress due to the restructured electricity environment. The overall reliability framework proposed in this paper incorporates the deterministic N-1 criterion in a probabilistic framework, and results in the joint inclusion of both adequacy and static...
Reliable operation of power system is fundamental to the on-going industry reform. This paper presents the result of marginal power flow evaluation performed on Korean power system for planning mode. It uses two commercial software packages: physical and operational margins (POM V. 2.2) and probabilistic reliability assessment (PRA V. 3.1), respectively. The case studies of Korea power system for...
The Brazilian power grid has traditionally been designed and operated by means of a deterministic reliability criteria set. Although these criteria have successfully eliminated system constraints, they have also entailed higher costs, especially those concerning operation planning. That happens because such deterministic criteria allow quantitative and not- qualitative analysis. Their essential weakness...
This paper presents a probabilistic reliability planning method for transmission systems. The core of the method is the quantified reliability evaluation technique, which is based on Monte Carlo simulation for transmission and generation and an analytical multiple-state model for an HVDC system. The planning procedure includes comparison among reinforcement alternatives, effect study of retired components,...
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