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Under electricity market operation, the competitiveness of wind power generation may be reduced because of the stochastic nature of the wind resource, which often results in increased regulation costs. The negative impact associated to the stochastic nature of the wind resource may be reduced by coupling the wind farm with energy storage facilities, thus constituting a virtual power plant. In this...
It is recognized today that short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with a paramount information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. When considering different areas covering a region, they are produced independently, and thus neglect the interdependence structure of prediction errors, induced by movement of meteorological fronts,...
This paper reports new results in adopting entropy concepts to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind characteristics (mainly speed and direction) in wind parks connected to a power grid. Renyi's Entropy is combined with a Parzen Windows estimation of the error pdf to form the basis of three criteria (MEE, MCC and MEEF) under which neural...
Better modelling and forecasting of very short-term power fluctuations at large offshore wind farms may significantly enhance control and management strategies of their power output. The paper introduces a new methodology for modelling and forecasting such very short-term fluctuations. The proposed methodology is based on a Markov-switching autoregressive model with time-varying coefficients. An advantage...
Wind energy on a power system alters the unit commitment and dispatch problem, as it adds a stochastic element due to the uncertainty of wind power forecasts. By explicitly taking into account the stochastic nature of wind power, it is expected that better schedules should be produced, thereby reducing costs on the system. This paper compares a stochastically optimised unit commitment and dispatch...
Uncertain wind power forecasts is a disadvantage in an electricity market where the majority of the trading is performed several hours before the actual delivery. This paper presents a model which can be used to study how changes in the trading arrangement-in particular changing the delay time between closure of the spot market and the delivery period or changing the imbalance pricing system-would...
Considerable research has been devoted on the development of decision-making models suitable for tackling decision problems integrating some amount of uncertainty. However, such approaches are either problem-specific, either too general to suit certain problems. In this paper we propose an approach for performing decision-making under uncertainty suitable for problems in which decisions must be made...
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