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In order to schedule the choice of maintaining or refurbishing MV equipment, an electrical utility may study ageing effects on different pieces of such equipment. In this paper, the analysis is based on record of outages (MV power cuts) during several years where causes of outages are noticed (and ages of pieces of equipment are also known). Failure rate versus age estimation results are given for...
This paper addresses the problem of predicting a wind farm's power generation when no or few statistical data is available. The study is based on a time-series wind speed model and on a simple dynamic model of a DFIG wind turbine including cut-off and cut-in behaviours. The wind turbine is modeled as a stochastic hybrid system with three operation modes. Numerical results, obtained using Monte-Carlo...
In power system planning and operation, accurate assessment of reliability worth is essential for making informed decisions. One common simplification when modeling power system reliability is assuming constant failure rates and non time-varying restoration times. However, historical outages show differently; failure rates and restoration times for especially overhead lines are dependent upon time-varying...
A Markovian approach already developed in a previous paper by some of the authors to evaluate the energy production and power availability of a wind turbine is utilized to size a hybrid wind-diesel stand alone system. The wind turbine power time variability is taken into account by means of a discrete reduced number of contiguous power classes, each corresponding to an opportune range of values, starting...
This paper reports new results in adopting entropy concepts to the training of mappers such as neural networks to perform wind power prediction as a function of wind characteristics (mainly speed and direction) in wind parks connected to a power grid. Renyi's Entropy is combined with a Parzen Windows estimation of the error pdf to form the basis of three criteria (MEE, MCC and MEEF) under which neural...
In this study hourly wind speed time series data of Eskisehir region, Turkey have been used for stochastic generation of wind speed data using the transition matrix approach of the Markov chain process. Previous work on synthetic data generation did not focus on the effects of different choices of wind states. In this work, it was observed that increasing the number of states has a significant benefit...
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